ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ITS IMPACTS ON SUMMER VEGETABLE PRODUCTION IN TRISHULI-NARAYANI RIVER CORRIDOR, NEPAL

  • Ananta Prakash Subedi , Dharma Raj Dangol , Shiva Chandra Dhakal , and Ujjal Tiwari

Climate change poses a significant threat to communities reliant on natural resources, particularly those dependent on agriculture. Summer vegetables, a major crop in Nepal, are acutely affected by changing weather patterns, impacting food security, income stability, and overall livelihood sustainability. This study employed a participatory approach to assess climate vulnerabilities and impacts on summer vegetable farmers in the Trishuli-Narayani River corridor. Using techniques like climate hazard ranking, seasonal vulnerability calendars, and forced field analysis, the study engaged 71 farmers from six sites across Chitwan, Dhading, and Nuwakot districts. The study identified location-specific vulnerabilities. Heavy rainfall emerged as the most concerning climate hazard for farmers in lower altitude areas (e.g., Chitwan), while heat stress posed the greatest threat at higher elevations (e.g., Dhading and Nuwakot). Furthermore, the study revealed that specific summer vegetables were perceived as more vulnerable than others. For instance, tomatoes were ranked as the most affected crop in Chitwan, while cucumbers were seen as highly susceptible to climate risks in Dhading and Nuwakot. A forced field analysis identified various factors contributing to vulnerability, with social factors (SF), physical factors (PF), and natural factors (NF) being the most prominent across the region. The level of vulnerability varied by district, with Chitwan exhibiting moderate vulnerability (NF=2.09, PF=2.51,SF=2.71), Dhading experiencing higher vulnerability (NF=3.13, PF=3.34, SF=2.55), and Nuwakot facing challenges driven primarily by economic and human factors (NF=2.29, PF=2.29, SF=1.88). Farmers have adopted various adaptation strategies to cope with these vulnerabilities. These strategies include afforestation within farms (a prominent practice in Nuwakot) (AF=5.31) and canal reconstruction (frequently implemented in Chitwan) (CR=3.26). However, the study highlights a gap between vulnerability scores and mitigation measures, suggesting a need for more robust adaptation strategies. The participatory approach employed in this study yielded valuable insights into the specific climate challenges faced by local farmers. This underscores the importance of engaging communities in climate change assessments and tailoring adaptation plans to address their unique needs. These findings not only contribute to a deeper understanding of climate change impacts on summer vegetable production in Nepal but also hold significant global implications for vulnerable regions facing similar challenges. The study emphasizes the urgency of proactive measures to navigate a changing climate and ensure the sustainability of agricultural livelihoods.